10 Aug · 09:40 MESZLow · Coin Flip
KS
🇵🇱Karol Sulkowski
ELO 1365
FormWLWWL
51%Win chancemodel fair 1.96Sulkowski
MT
🇵🇱Mateusz Trela
ELO 1358
FormWLLWW
51%
49%
Fair odds · Sulkowski
Model 51% · 1.96vsMarket 43% · 2.30· vig 9%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 36%Total ~78 pts
3-1
20%
1-3
20%
3-0
16%
2-3
16%
3-2
15%
Elo Gap+7
H2H14-11
Why this call
Model read
No strong signal — near coin-flip. Model leans only marginally.