10 Aug · 09:35 MESZMedium · Model Lean
JM
🇵🇱Jerzy Michalik
ELO 1496
FormLWWWW
57%Win chancemodel fair 1.75Michalik
MW
🇵🇱Michal Wolny
ELO 1432
FormWLWLL
57%
43%
Fair odds · Michalik
Model 57% · 1.75vsMarket 46% · 2.16· vig 9%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 41%Total ~80 pts
3-1
22%
3-0
18%
1-3
17%
3-2
17%
2-3
14%
Elo Gap+64
H2H21-25
Why this call
Why this pick? · 2 reasons
- ✓Higher Elo rating (+64)
- ✓Better recent form (4-1)