10 Aug · 09:30 MESZLow · Coin Flip
PM
🇵🇱Patryk Mecik
ELO 1433
FormLWLWL
51%Win chancemodel fair 1.96Tobiasz
WT
🇵🇱Wojciech Tobiasz
ELO 1444
FormWLLWL
49%
51%
Fair odds · Tobiasz
Model 51% · 1.96vsMarket 63% · 1.58· vig 9%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 36%Total ~81 pts
1-3
20%
3-1
19%
0-3
16%
3-2
16%
2-3
15%
Elo Gap+11
H2H45-26
Why this call
Model read
No strong signal — near coin-flip. Model leans only marginally.