10 Aug · 09:15 MESZMedium · Model Lean
MK
🇵🇱Maciej Kolek
ELO 1608
FormWLLWW
57%Win chancemodel fair 1.75Kolek
MM
🇵🇱Michal Minda
ELO 1547
FormWWWWL
57%
43%
🌟Kolek goes over total as favourite 75% (28)
Fair odds · Kolek
Model 57% · 1.75vsMarket 57% · 1.76· vig 10%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 40%Total ~78 pts
3-1
22%
3-0
18%
1-3
17%
3-2
16%
2-3
14%
Elo Gap+61
H2H18-15
Why this call
Why this pick? · 2 reasons
- ✓Higher Elo rating (+61)
- ✓Winning head-to-head (18-15)