10 Aug · 09:20 MESZMedium · Model Lean
KK
🇵🇱Krzysztof Kotyl
ELO 1361
FormLLLWL
55%Win chancemodel fair 1.82Sulkowski
BS
🇵🇱Bartosz Sulkowski
ELO 1409
FormWWWLL
45%
55%
Fair odds · Sulkowski
Model 55% · 1.82vsMarket 53% · 1.87· vig 9%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 39%Total ~76 pts
1-3
22%
3-1
18%
0-3
18%
2-3
16%
3-2
15%
Elo Gap+48
H2H12-10
Why this call
Why this pick? · 3 reasons
- ✓Higher Elo rating (+48)
- ✓Better recent form (3-2)
- ✓Winning head-to-head (12-10)