10 Aug · 10:30 MESZMedium · Model Lean
AS
🇵🇱Artur Sobel
ELO 1543
FormLWWLL
58%Win chancemodel fair 1.72Kolek
MK
🇵🇱Maciej Kolek
ELO 1615
FormWWLLW
42%
58%
🌟Kolek goes over total as favourite 75% (28)
Fair odds · Kolek
Model 58% · 1.72vsMarket 56% · 1.79· vig 9%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 41%Total ~77 pts
1-3
23%
0-3
18%
3-1
17%
2-3
17%
3-2
14%
Elo Gap+72
H2H10-8
Why this call
Why this pick? · 2 reasons
- ✓Higher Elo rating (+72)
- ✓Winning head-to-head (10-8)