10 Aug · 13:55 MESZLow · Slight Edge
JP
🇵🇱Jerzy Pelka
ELO 1492
FormLWWWL
53%Win chancemodel fair 1.89Pelka
WT
🇵🇱Wojciech Tobiasz
ELO 1465
FormWWWWL
53%
47%
Fair odds · Pelka
Model 53% · 1.89vsMarket 49% · 2.06· vig 9%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 38%Total ~79 pts
3-1
21%
1-3
19%
3-0
17%
2-3
15%
3-2
15%
Elo Gap+27
H2H8-20
Why this call
Model read
No strong signal — near coin-flip. Model leans only marginally.