10 Aug · 13:30 MESZMedium · Model Lean
JN
🇵🇱Jakub Nowak
ELO 1370
FormWLLLW
59%Win chancemodel fair 1.69Jablonski
KJ
🇵🇱Karol Jablonski
ELO 1452
FormLLWWW
41%
59%
🌟Nowak goes over total as underdog 62% (37)
Fair odds · Jablonski
Model 59% · 1.69vsMarket 58% · 1.72· vig 9%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 42%Total ~79 pts
1-3
23%
0-3
19%
2-3
17%
3-1
16%
3-2
13%
Elo Gap+82
H2H5-4
Why this call
Why this pick? · 2 reasons
- ✓Higher Elo rating (+82)
- ✓Winning head-to-head (5-4)