10 Aug · 15:05 MESZLow · Slight Edge
SB
🇵🇱Szymon Brud
ELO 1565
FormLWWWW
53%Win chancemodel fair 1.89Brud
AS
🇵🇱Artur Sobel
ELO 1540
FormLLWLW
53%
47%
🌟Brud goes over total as favourite 72% (18)
Fair odds · Brud
Model 53% · 1.89vsMarket 41% · 2.43· vig 8%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 37%Total ~77 pts
3-1
21%
1-3
19%
3-0
17%
2-3
15%
3-2
15%
Elo Gap+25
H2H6-6
Why this call
Model read
No strong signal — near coin-flip. Model leans only marginally.