10 Aug · 16:15 MESZLow · Slight Edge
LJ
🇵🇱Lukasz Jarocki
ELO 1621
FormLLLWL
54%Win chancemodel fair 1.85Poliniewicz
GP
🇵🇱Grzegorz Poliniewicz
ELO 1660
FormWWLWL
46%
54%
🌟Poliniewicz goes over total as favourite 69% (13)
Fair odds · Poliniewicz
Model 54% · 1.85vsMarket 45% · 2.24· vig 9%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 39%Total ~78 pts
1-3
21%
3-1
18%
0-3
17%
2-3
16%
3-2
15%
Elo Gap+39
H2H20-23
Why this call
Model read
No strong signal — near coin-flip. Model leans only marginally.