10 Aug · 15:55 MESZElite · Strong Favorite
BW
🇵🇱Blazej Warpas
ELO 1343
FormLLLWL
70%Win chancemodel fair 1.43Sobel
AS
🇵🇱Artur Sobel
ELO 1539
FormWLLLW
30%
70%
Fair odds · Sobel
Model 70% · 1.43vsMarket 69% · 1.44· vig 9%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 56%Total ~75 pts
0-3
30%
1-3
26%
2-3
15%
3-2
12%
3-1
11%
Elo Gap+196
H2H4-2
Why this call
Why this pick? · 2 reasons
- ✓Higher Elo rating (+196)
- ✓Winning head-to-head (4-2)