10 Aug · 22:05 MESZLow · Slight Edge
MK
🇵🇱Michal Krutak
ELO 1626
FormWWWWW
53%Win chancemodel fair 1.89Tkaczyk
HT
🇵🇱Henryk Tkaczyk
ELO 1656
FormWLWWW
47%
53%
🌟Tkaczyk stays under total as favourite 71% (45)
Fair odds · Tkaczyk
Model 53% · 1.89vsMarket 46% · 2.16· vig 9%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 38%Total ~78 pts
1-3
21%
3-1
19%
0-3
17%
2-3
15%
3-2
15%
Elo Gap+30
H2H12-8
Why this call
Model read
No strong signal — near coin-flip. Model leans only marginally.