10 Aug · 21:20 MESZLow · Coin Flip
MW
🇵🇱Miroslaw Warzecha
ELO 1655
FormLLWWW
50%Win chancemodel fair 2.00Tkaczyk
HT
🇵🇱Henryk Tkaczyk
ELO 1656
FormWLWWW
50%
50%
🌟Tkaczyk stays under total as favourite 71% (45)
Fair odds · Tkaczyk
Model 50% · 2.00vsMarket 44% · 2.26· vig 9%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 36%Total ~76 pts
3-1
20%
1-3
20%
3-2
16%
0-3
16%
2-3
14%
Elo Gap+1
H2H16-23
Why this call
Model read
No strong signal — near coin-flip. Model leans only marginally.