10 Aug · 22:30 MESZMedium · Model Lean
LJ
🇵🇱Lukasz Jarocki
ELO 1627
FormLWLLL
59%Win chancemodel fair 1.69Jarocki
JC
🇵🇱Jakub Chmielowski
ELO 1550
FormLLLLL
59%
41%
Fair odds · Jarocki
Model 59% · 1.69vsMarket 51% · 1.95· vig 9%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 42%Total ~78 pts
3-1
23%
3-0
19%
3-2
17%
1-3
17%
2-3
14%
Elo Gap+77
H2H6-5
Why this call
Why this pick? · 2 reasons
- ✓Higher Elo rating (+77)
- ✓Winning head-to-head (6-5)