10 Aug · 17:45 MESZLow · Coin Flip
KG
🇵🇱Kacper Glazowski
ELO 1641
FormWLWWW
51%Win chancemodel fair 1.96Sklensky
MS
🇵🇱Miroslav Sklensky
ELO 1653
FormLWLWL
49%
51%
Fair odds · Sklensky
Model 51% · 1.96vsMarket 61% · 1.65· vig 9%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 36%Total ~78 pts
1-3
20%
3-1
19%
0-3
16%
3-2
16%
2-3
15%
Elo Gap+12
H2H37-30
Why this call
Model read
No strong signal — near coin-flip. Model leans only marginally.