10 Aug · 23:45 MESZMedium · Model Lean
MK
🇵🇱Michal Krutak
ELO 1626
FormWWWWW
57%Win chancemodel fair 1.75Krutak
ML
🇵🇱Miroslaw Lewczuk
ELO 1565
FormLWLWW
57%
43%
Fair odds · Krutak
Model 57% · 1.75vsMarket 66% · 1.51· vig 9%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 40%Total ~79 pts
3-1
22%
3-0
18%
1-3
17%
3-2
16%
2-3
14%
Elo Gap+61
H2H5-1
Why this call
Why this pick? · 3 reasons
- ✓Higher Elo rating (+61)
- ✓Better recent form (5-0)
- ✓Winning head-to-head (5-1)