10 Aug · 17:55 MESZLow · Coin Flip
WT
🇵🇱Wojciech Tobiasz
ELO 1475
FormLWWWW
51%Win chancemodel fair 1.96Tobiasz
KJ
🇵🇱Karol Jablonski
ELO 1466
FormLWWWL
51%
49%
Fair odds · Tobiasz
Model 51% · 1.96vsMarket 45% · 2.23· vig 8%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 36%Total ~79 pts
3-1
20%
1-3
19%
3-0
16%
2-3
16%
3-2
15%
Elo Gap+9
H2H2-3
Why this call
Model read
No strong signal — near coin-flip. Model leans only marginally.