10 Aug · 18:55 MESZMedium · Model Lean
KG
🇵🇱Kuba Golaszewski
ELO 1333
FormWWLLW
57%Win chancemodel fair 1.75Kowalczyk
MK
🇵🇱Marcin Kowalczyk
ELO 1396
FormWWLLW
43%
57%
🔥 Underdog lean · Golaszewski🌟Kowalczyk rarely covers set handicap as favourite 23% (26)
Fair odds · Kowalczyk
Model 57% · 1.75vsMarket 58% · 1.73· vig 8%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 40%Total ~78 pts
1-3
22%
0-3
18%
3-1
17%
2-3
16%
3-2
14%
Elo Gap+63
H2H37-27
Why this call
Why this pick? · 2 reasons
- ✓Higher Elo rating (+63)
- ✓Winning head-to-head (37-27)