10 Aug · 19:20 MESZLow · Slight Edge
AF
🇵🇱Adrian Fabis
ELO 1314
FormWLWLL
52%Win chancemodel fair 1.92Wisniewski
BW
🇵🇱Bartlomiej Wisniewski
ELO 1332
FormLWLWW
48%
52%
🌟Fabis covers set handicap as underdog 70% (33)
Fair odds · Wisniewski
Model 52% · 1.92vsMarket 49% · 2.05· vig 9%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 37%Total ~79 pts
1-3
20%
3-1
19%
0-3
17%
3-2
16%
2-3
15%
Elo Gap+18
H2H39-43
Why this call
Model read
No strong signal — near coin-flip. Model leans only marginally.