11 Aug · 05:00 MESZMedium · Model Lean
MM
🇵🇱Maksymilian Miastowski
ELO 1745
FormWWLLW
57%Win chancemodel fair 1.75Wiecek
AW
🇵🇱Adrian Wiecek
ELO 1813
FormLWWWL
43%
57%
Fair odds · Wiecek
Model 57% · 1.75vsMarket 58% · 1.74· vig 9%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 41%Total ~79 pts
1-3
23%
0-3
18%
3-1
17%
2-3
17%
3-2
14%
Elo Gap+68
H2H43-22
Why this call
Why this pick? · 2 reasons
- ✓Higher Elo rating (+68)
- ✓Winning head-to-head (43-22)