10 Aug · 22:05 MESZLow · Coin Flip
KG
🇵🇱Kuba Golaszewski
ELO 1326
FormLLWWW
51%Win chancemodel fair 1.96Wisniewski
BW
🇵🇱Bartlomiej Wisniewski
ELO 1333
FormLWLWL
49%
51%
Fair odds · Wisniewski
Model 51% · 1.96vsMarket 63% · 1.58· vig 8%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 36%Total ~79 pts
1-3
20%
3-1
20%
0-3
16%
3-2
16%
2-3
15%
Elo Gap+7
H2H17-6
Why this call
Model read
No strong signal — near coin-flip. Model leans only marginally.