10 Aug · 21:55 MESZElite · Strong Favorite
KA
🇵🇱Kacper Adamus
ELO 1609
FormLWWWL
67%Win chancemodel fair 1.49Adamus
RN
🇵🇱Rafal Niemiec
ELO 1453
FormWLWLW
67%
33%
Fair odds · Adamus
Model 67% · 1.49vsMarket 63% · 1.58· vig 8%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 50%Total ~77 pts
3-1
26%
3-0
24%
3-2
16%
1-3
13%
2-3
12%
Elo Gap+156
H2H2-0
Why this call
Why this pick? · 2 reasons
- ✓Higher Elo rating (+156)
- ✓Winning head-to-head (2-0)