10 Aug · 22:30 MESZMedium · Model Lean
MP
🇵🇱Miroslaw Piecowski
ELO 1326
FormLWLWW
56%Win chancemodel fair 1.79Kowalczyk
MK
🇵🇱Marcin Kowalczyk
ELO 1378
FormLLWWL
44%
56%
🌟Kowalczyk rarely covers set handicap as favourite 23% (26)
Fair odds · Kowalczyk
Model 56% · 1.79vsMarket 59% · 1.70· vig 8%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 40%Total ~78 pts
1-3
22%
0-3
18%
3-1
18%
2-3
16%
3-2
15%
Elo Gap+52
H2H13-12
Why this call
Why this pick? · 2 reasons
- ✓Higher Elo rating (+52)
- ✓Winning head-to-head (13-12)