10 Aug · 22:20 MESZLow · Slight Edge
PG
🇵🇱Piotr Gesiarz
ELO 1505
FormWWWLW
52%Win chancemodel fair 1.92Kubiak
AK
🇵🇱Artur Kubiak
ELO 1522
FormLWWLL
48%
52%
🌟Gesiarz covers set handicap as underdog 66% (38)
Fair odds · Kubiak
Model 52% · 1.92vsMarket 55% · 1.81· vig 9%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 37%Total ~78 pts
1-3
20%
3-1
19%
0-3
16%
3-2
16%
2-3
15%
Elo Gap+17
H2H2-0
Why this call
Model read
No strong signal — near coin-flip. Model leans only marginally.