10 Aug · 23:05 MESZLow · Slight Edge
KA
🇵🇱Kacper Adamus
ELO 1614
FormWLWWW
52%Win chancemodel fair 1.92Adamus
PG
🇵🇱Piotr Gumulinski
ELO 1594
FormWWWWW
52%
48%
🌟Gumulinski covers set handicap as underdog 74% (19)
Fair odds · Adamus
Model 52% · 1.92vsMarket 55% · 1.81· vig 9%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 37%Total ~78 pts
3-1
21%
1-3
19%
3-0
17%
2-3
16%
3-2
15%
Elo Gap+20
H2H17-15
Why this call
Model read
No strong signal — near coin-flip. Model leans only marginally.