10 Aug · 23:05 MESZMedium · Model Lean
AF
🇵🇱Adrian Fabis
ELO 1324
FormLWWWL
55%Win chancemodel fair 1.82Kowalczyk
MK
🇵🇱Marcin Kowalczyk
ELO 1369
FormLLLWW
45%
55%
🔥 Underdog lean · Fabis🌟Kowalczyk rarely covers set handicap as favourite 23% (26)
Fair odds · Kowalczyk
Model 55% · 1.82vsMarket 58% · 1.73· vig 9%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 39%Total ~78 pts
1-3
22%
3-1
18%
0-3
17%
2-3
16%
3-2
15%
Elo Gap+45
H2H68-77
Why this call
Why this pick? · 1 reason
- ✓Higher Elo rating (+45)