11 Aug · 00:15 MESZLow · Slight Edge
MK
🇵🇱Marcin Kowalczyk
ELO 1355
FormLLLLL
53%Win chancemodel fair 1.89Kowalczyk
KG
🇵🇱Kuba Golaszewski
ELO 1328
FormWLLWW
53%
47%
🔥 Underdog lean · Golaszewski🌟Kowalczyk rarely covers set handicap as favourite 23% (26)
Fair odds · Kowalczyk
Model 53% · 1.89vsMarket 55% · 1.83· vig 10%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 38%Total ~78 pts
3-1
21%
1-3
19%
3-0
17%
2-3
15%
3-2
15%
Elo Gap+27
H2H37-28
Why this call
Model read
No strong signal — near coin-flip. Model leans only marginally.