11 Aug · 01:05 MESZMedium · Model Lean
KS
🇵🇱Krzysztof Schaniel
ELO 1526
FormWLWWL
57%Win chancemodel fair 1.75Schaniel
WU
🇵🇱Wojciech Urban
ELO 1459
FormWLLWW
57%
43%
🔥 Underdog lean · Urban🌟Urban covers set handicap as underdog 68% (19)
Fair odds · Schaniel
Model 57% · 1.75vsMarket 59% · 1.70· vig 8%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 41%Total ~78 pts
3-1
23%
3-0
18%
1-3
17%
3-2
17%
2-3
14%
Elo Gap+67
H2H55-40
Why this call
Why this pick? · 2 reasons
- ✓Higher Elo rating (+67)
- ✓Winning head-to-head (55-40)