11 Aug · 00:35 MESZMedium · Model Lean
ML
🇵🇱Mikolaj Lukaszewski
ELO 1292
FormLWLLL
57%Win chancemodel fair 1.75Kowalczyk
MK
🇵🇱Marcin Kowalczyk
ELO 1355
FormLLLLL
43%
57%
🔥 Underdog lean · Lukaszewski🌟Kowalczyk rarely covers set handicap as favourite 23% (26)
Fair odds · Kowalczyk
Model 57% · 1.75vsMarket 58% · 1.71· vig 9%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 40%Total ~78 pts
1-3
22%
0-3
18%
3-1
17%
2-3
16%
3-2
14%
Elo Gap+63
H2H28-25
Why this call
Why this pick? · 2 reasons
- ✓Higher Elo rating (+63)
- ✓Winning head-to-head (28-25)