11 Aug · 01:20 MESZLow · Slight Edge
MP
🇵🇱Miroslaw Piecowski
ELO 1329
FormLWLWL
53%Win chancemodel fair 1.89Kowalczyk
MK
🇵🇱Marcin Kowalczyk
ELO 1355
FormLLLLL
47%
53%
🌟Kowalczyk rarely covers set handicap as favourite 23% (26)
Fair odds · Kowalczyk
Model 53% · 1.89vsMarket 59% · 1.68· vig 9%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 38%Total ~79 pts
1-3
21%
3-1
19%
0-3
17%
3-2
15%
2-3
15%
Elo Gap+26
H2H13-13
Why this call
Model read
No strong signal — near coin-flip. Model leans only marginally.