11 Aug · 02:10 MESZMedium · Model Lean
PG
🇵🇱Piotr Gumulinski
ELO 1589
FormLWWWW
58%Win chancemodel fair 1.72Gumulinski
KS
🇵🇱Krzysztof Schaniel
ELO 1518
FormLWLWW
58%
42%
Fair odds · Gumulinski
Model 58% · 1.72vsMarket 71% · 1.40· vig 9%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 41%Total ~78 pts
3-1
23%
3-0
18%
1-3
17%
3-2
17%
2-3
14%
Elo Gap+71
H2H112-50
Why this call
Why this pick? · 2 reasons
- ✓Higher Elo rating (+71)
- ✓Winning head-to-head (112-50)