11 Aug · 02:10 MESZLow · Coin Flip
MP
🇵🇱Miroslaw Piecowski
ELO 1321
FormLLWLW
50%Win chancemodel fair 2.00Fabis
AF
🇵🇱Adrian Fabis
ELO 1324
FormLWLWW
50%
50%
Fair odds · Fabis
Model 50% · 2.00vsMarket 56% · 1.79· vig 8%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 36%Total ~79 pts
3-1
20%
1-3
20%
3-2
16%
0-3
16%
2-3
15%
Elo Gap+3
H2H61-61
Why this call
Model read
No strong signal — near coin-flip. Model leans only marginally.