11 Aug · 01:45 MESZLow · Slight Edge
AF
🇵🇱Adrian Fabis
ELO 1324
FormLWLWW
53%Win chancemodel fair 1.89Fabis
ML
🇵🇱Mikolaj Lukaszewski
ELO 1295
FormLWLWL
53%
47%
🌟Lukaszewski covers set handicap as underdog 71% (21)
Fair odds · Fabis
Model 53% · 1.89vsMarket 46% · 2.18· vig 9%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 38%Total ~79 pts
3-1
21%
1-3
19%
3-0
17%
3-2
15%
2-3
15%
Elo Gap+29
H2H31-34
Why this call
Model read
No strong signal — near coin-flip. Model leans only marginally.