11 Aug · 02:35 MESZLow · Slight Edge
ML
🇵🇱Mikolaj Lukaszewski
ELO 1295
FormLWLWL
54%Win chancemodel fair 1.85Golaszewski
KG
🇵🇱Kuba Golaszewski
ELO 1330
FormWLWWL
46%
54%
🔥 Underdog lean · Lukaszewski🌟Lukaszewski covers set handicap as underdog 71% (21)
Fair odds · Golaszewski
Model 54% · 1.85vsMarket 49% · 2.06· vig 8%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 38%Total ~79 pts
1-3
21%
3-1
18%
0-3
17%
2-3
16%
3-2
15%
Elo Gap+35
H2H17-18
Why this call
Model read
No strong signal — near coin-flip. Model leans only marginally.