11 Aug · 06:25 MESZLow · Slight Edge
MM
🇵🇱Michal Minda
ELO 1549
FormWLWWW
54%Win chancemodel fair 1.85Minda
JG
🇵🇱Jakub Glanowski
ELO 1509
FormWLWWW
54%
46%
🌟Glanowski covers set handicap as underdog 62% (69)
Fair odds · Minda
Model 54% · 1.85vsMarket 53% · 1.89· vig 9%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 39%Total ~78 pts
3-1
21%
1-3
18%
3-0
17%
3-2
16%
2-3
15%
Elo Gap+40
H2H54-49
Why this call
Model read
No strong signal — near coin-flip. Model leans only marginally.