11 Aug · 05:55 MESZLow · Slight Edge
WU
🇵🇱Wojciech Urban
ELO 1490
FormLWWWW
52%Win chancemodel fair 1.92Urban
RN
🇵🇱Rafal Niemiec
ELO 1474
FormWWWWL
52%
48%
🌟Urban rarely covers set handicap as favourite 30% (33)
Fair odds · Urban
Model 52% · 1.92vsMarket 51% · 1.96· vig 9%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 37%Total ~79 pts
3-1
20%
1-3
19%
3-0
16%
2-3
16%
3-2
15%
Elo Gap+16
H2H2-1
Why this call
Model read
No strong signal — near coin-flip. Model leans only marginally.