11 Aug · 06:50 MESZMedium · Model Lean
RI
🇵🇱Rafal Idaczyk
ELO 1454
FormLWLWW
55%Win chancemodel fair 1.82Idaczyk
PM
🇵🇱Patryk Mecik
ELO 1405
FormLLWWL
55%
45%
Fair odds · Idaczyk
Model 55% · 1.82vsMarket 46% · 2.17· vig 8%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 39%Total ~78 pts
3-1
22%
1-3
18%
3-0
18%
3-2
16%
2-3
15%
Elo Gap+49
H2H15-11
Why this call
Why this pick? · 2 reasons
- ✓Higher Elo rating (+49)
- ✓Winning head-to-head (15-11)