11 Aug · 08:25 MESZMedium · Model Lean
RI
🇵🇱Rafal Idaczyk
ELO 1454
FormLWLWW
56%Win chancemodel fair 1.79Idaczyk
JK
🇵🇱Jakub Kaczmarek
ELO 1402
FormWLLWW
56%
44%
🌟Kaczmarek covers set handicap as underdog 68% (56)
Fair odds · Idaczyk
Model 56% · 1.79vsMarket 69% · 1.46· vig 9%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 40%Total ~79 pts
3-1
22%
3-0
18%
1-3
18%
3-2
16%
2-3
14%
Elo Gap+52
H2H47-5
Why this call
Why this pick? · 2 reasons
- ✓Higher Elo rating (+52)
- ✓Winning head-to-head (47-5)