11 Aug · 08:50 MESZLow · Coin Flip
SB
🇵🇱Szymon Brud
ELO 1552
FormLWLLL
51%Win chancemodel fair 1.96Brud
MM
🇵🇱Michal Minda
ELO 1546
FormLWWLW
51%
49%
🌟Brud goes over total as favourite 72% (18)
Fair odds · Brud
Model 51% · 1.96vsMarket 50% · 2.00· vig 9%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 36%Total ~78 pts
3-1
20%
1-3
20%
2-3
16%
3-0
16%
3-2
15%
Elo Gap+6
H2H2-3
Why this call
Model read
No strong signal — near coin-flip. Model leans only marginally.