11 Aug · 08:45 MESZLow · Slight Edge
PA
🇵🇱Pawel Adamus
ELO 1505
FormLWWLW
53%Win chancemodel fair 1.89Adamus
MB
🇵🇱Mariusz Baron
ELO 1475
FormWWLLL
53%
47%
🌟Adamus goes over total as favourite 66% (79)
Fair odds · Adamus
Model 53% · 1.89vsMarket 45% · 2.24· vig 9%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 38%Total ~78 pts
3-1
21%
1-3
19%
3-0
17%
3-2
15%
2-3
15%
Elo Gap+30
H2H12-16
Why this call
Model read
No strong signal — near coin-flip. Model leans only marginally.