11 Aug · 09:10 MESZLow · Coin Flip
AR
🇵🇱Adam Ruszkiewicz
ELO 1435
FormWWLLL
51%Win chancemodel fair 1.96Idaczyk
RI
🇵🇱Rafal Idaczyk
ELO 1445
FormLLWLW
49%
51%
🌟Ruszkiewicz covers set handicap as underdog 66% (32)
Fair odds · Idaczyk
Model 51% · 1.96vsMarket 57% · 1.76· vig 10%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 36%Total ~77 pts
1-3
20%
3-1
19%
0-3
16%
3-2
16%
2-3
15%
Elo Gap+10
H2H11-7
Why this call
Model read
No strong signal — near coin-flip. Model leans only marginally.