11 Aug · 10:05 MESZLow · Coin Flip
AS
🇵🇱Artur Sobel
ELO 1526
FormLLWLW
51%Win chancemodel fair 1.96Sobel
JG
🇵🇱Jakub Glanowski
ELO 1518
FormWWLWL
51%
49%
🌟Glanowski covers set handicap as underdog 62% (69)
Fair odds · Sobel
Model 51% · 1.96vsMarket 57% · 1.76· vig 10%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 36%Total ~78 pts
3-1
20%
1-3
20%
3-0
16%
2-3
16%
3-2
15%
Elo Gap+8
H2H31-32
Why this call
Model read
No strong signal — near coin-flip. Model leans only marginally.