11 Aug · 10:00 MESZMedium · Model Lean
OV
🇵🇱Oliver Vincenec
ELO 1408
FormLWLLL
55%Win chancemodel fair 1.82Idaczyk
RI
🇵🇱Rafal Idaczyk
ELO 1450
FormWLLWL
45%
55%
Fair odds · Idaczyk
Model 55% · 1.82vsMarket 44% · 2.27· vig 8%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 39%Total ~78 pts
1-3
21%
3-1
18%
0-3
17%
2-3
16%
3-2
15%
Elo Gap+42
H2H13-5
Why this call
Why this pick? · 2 reasons
- ✓Higher Elo rating (+42)
- ✓Winning head-to-head (13-5)