11 Aug · 09:35 MESZLow · Slight Edge
JK
🇵🇱Jakub Kaczmarek
ELO 1391
FormLLWLL
52%Win chancemodel fair 1.92Mecik
PM
🇵🇱Patryk Mecik
ELO 1408
FormLWLLW
48%
52%
🌟Kaczmarek covers set handicap as underdog 68% (56)
Fair odds · Mecik
Model 52% · 1.92vsMarket 50% · 1.98· vig 8%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 37%Total ~79 pts
1-3
20%
3-1
19%
0-3
16%
3-2
16%
2-3
15%
Elo Gap+17
H2H8-15
Why this call
Model read
No strong signal — near coin-flip. Model leans only marginally.