11 Aug · 09:40 MESZLow · Slight Edge
BW
🇵🇱Blazej Warpas
ELO 1352
FormLWWLL
53%Win chancemodel fair 1.89Kotyl
KK
🇵🇱Krzysztof Kotyl
ELO 1379
FormWWLWL
47%
53%
Fair odds · Kotyl
Model 53% · 1.89vsMarket 44% · 2.25· vig 9%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 38%Total ~78 pts
1-3
21%
3-1
19%
0-3
17%
3-2
15%
2-3
15%
Elo Gap+27
H2H12-17
Why this call
Model read
No strong signal — near coin-flip. Model leans only marginally.