11 Aug · 11:00 MESZLow · Slight Edge
MM
🇵🇱Michal Minda
ELO 1540
FormLWLLW
52%Win chancemodel fair 1.92Minda
AS
🇵🇱Artur Sobel
ELO 1526
FormLLWLW
52%
48%
Fair odds · Minda
Model 52% · 1.92vsMarket 41% · 2.46· vig 9%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 37%Total ~78 pts
3-1
20%
1-3
19%
3-0
16%
2-3
16%
3-2
15%
Elo Gap+14
H2H48-54
Why this call
Model read
No strong signal — near coin-flip. Model leans only marginally.