11 Aug · 10:45 MESZLow · Slight Edge
AR
🇵🇱Adam Ruszkiewicz
ELO 1438
FormWLWWL
54%Win chancemodel fair 1.85Ruszkiewicz
JK
🇵🇱Jakub Kaczmarek
ELO 1399
FormWLLWL
54%
46%
🌟Kaczmarek covers set handicap as underdog 68% (56)
Fair odds · Ruszkiewicz
Model 54% · 1.85vsMarket 45% · 2.20· vig 10%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 39%Total ~78 pts
3-1
21%
1-3
18%
3-0
17%
3-2
16%
2-3
15%
Elo Gap+39
H2H18-14
Why this call
Model read
No strong signal — near coin-flip. Model leans only marginally.