11 Aug · 12:30 MESZMedium · Model Lean
GP
🇵🇱Grzegorz Poliniewicz
ELO 1650
FormWLLWW
58%Win chancemodel fair 1.72Kuzmicz
JK
🇵🇱Jakub Kuzmicz
ELO 1726
FormWLWWL
42%
58%
Fair odds · Kuzmicz
Model 58% · 1.72vsMarket 57% · 1.76· vig 9%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 41%Total ~78 pts
1-3
23%
0-3
19%
2-3
17%
3-1
17%
3-2
14%
Elo Gap+76
H2H18-17
Why this call
Why this pick? · 2 reasons
- ✓Higher Elo rating (+76)
- ✓Winning head-to-head (18-17)