11 Aug · 12:20 MESZLow · Coin Flip
MB
🇵🇱Mariusz Baron
ELO 1462
FormLWLWW
51%Win chancemodel fair 1.96Baron
OS
🇵🇱Oliwier Sokolowski
ELO 1456
FormLLLWW
51%
49%
🔥 Underdog lean · Sokolowski🌟Sokolowski covers set handicap as underdog 67% (93)
Fair odds · Baron
Model 51% · 1.96vsMarket 48% · 2.10· vig 9%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 36%Total ~77 pts
3-1
20%
1-3
20%
2-3
16%
3-0
16%
3-2
15%
Elo Gap+6
H2H0-0
Why this call
Model read
No strong signal — near coin-flip. Model leans only marginally.