11 Aug · 12:55 MESZLow · Slight Edge
MS
🇵🇱Miroslav Sklensky
ELO 1667
FormLWLWW
54%Win chancemodel fair 1.85Sklensky
KG
🇵🇱Kacper Glazowski
ELO 1635
FormWLLWL
54%
46%
Fair odds · Sklensky
Model 54% · 1.85vsMarket 51% · 1.97· vig 9%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 38%Total ~78 pts
3-1
21%
1-3
18%
3-0
17%
3-2
15%
2-3
15%
Elo Gap+32
H2H38-30
Why this call
Model read
No strong signal — near coin-flip. Model leans only marginally.